最新资料表明Berkshire增持美国西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines) 4,320万股,价值21.5亿美元。同时,增持美国Delta Airlines 航空公司6,000万股,价值29.5亿美元。另外,还增持了American Airlines的股份。
巴菲特这一新的投资动向非比寻常,因为众所周知巴菲特一向对投资航空业不感兴趣。2013年的年会上,巴菲特对航空业的不感冒还言犹在耳:(航空业投资)对于投资者而言,那是个投资的死亡陷阱( A death trap for investors)。
然而,时移势易,近年来巴菲特的投资风格确实有了些变化。如,过去从不染指科技股的巴菲特去年则大手增持苹果股份。
最新资料表明:Berkshire已持有苹果42,100,000股,价值66.4亿美元。这也就导致近期苹果股价的持续上涨。在大手笔增持苹果股份的同时,近期竟然清空了过去曾一度重仓持股的沃尔玛。
☞ 为何一度的“死亡陷阱”竟变成了“馅饼”?
如果将时间倒回到2013年,当巴菲特诟病航空业时,航空公司确实是个烧钱的大窟窿。从2000年到2012年,大部分美国的航空公司都经历了财务危机,并几度濒临破产清盘。其主要原因就是油价的持续上涨,因为油价成本约占到航空公司运营总成本的1/3。2013年油价也达至历史高点。
但是,2014年后油价大幅回落。这也就导致过去的两年,航空公司的盈利大幅提升,全球航空业迎来了多年未见的荣景。盈利的改善,使公司的财务状况好转,各航空公司开始购置新型的客机,新型的客机又大大提升了公司的运营绩效。这一点,从中国航空公司近两年的业绩大幅改善中也可窥得一斑。
巴菲特下重注于航空业,应该不仅仅因为航空公司近期盈利状况的改善,更加看重的是油价(这一影响航空公司业绩的主要因素)的中长期趋势已经出现根本性的转变,即油价不可能再暴涨。油价中长期将维持在一个中低价位。因为,2013年后油价的供求关系已经出现历史性的转折。
最近,当查理.芒格在提到巴菲特的这一新的投资动向时说,巴菲特投资苹果和航空业并非疯狂的举措,而只是一个顺应时势的改变。尽管之前也曾认为投资航空业是一个“Joke”,但航空公司盈利的大幅改善有目共睹。
自巴菲特大幅增持苹果和上述三大航空公司的股票后,去年四季度后这四只股票都大幅飙升。在过去的一年苹果股价涨了40%;西南航空公司涨幅约50%。
Berkshire这一投资策略的转变是否意味着“后巴菲特时代”的开启?
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway upped its shareholdings in various airlines during the fourth quarter, according to a regulatory filing published Tuesday February 14.
The 13-F filing showed that Berkshire took a new position in Southwest Airlines, buying 43.2 million shares valued at $2.15 billion.
Meanwhile, the company increased its stake in Delta Air Lines by 848% to 60 million shares worth $2.95 billion. Berkshire also raised its stake in American Airlines.
Buffett continued to load up on airline stocks even after calling the sector a "death trap for investors" during the 2013 annual shareholder meeting.
Berkshire hiked its ownership in Apple by 277%, buying 42.1 million shares valued at $6.64 billion.
Buffett's most valuable holding remained Kraft Heinz, and no change was made to the stake worth $28.4 billion. Wells Fargo, Coca-Cola, IBM, and American Express also remained top holdings.
Berkshire dumped nearly all its Walmart shares, cutting its stake by 89%.
Berkshire's combined portfolio gained 15% during the fourth quarter. The benchmark S&P 500 index of US stocks gained 3.3%.
Major investment firms including hedge funds are required to disclose their long positions in stocks every quarter. Because of a time lag, these positions may have changed or been closed by the time the filings are made.
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